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Bears vs. Redskins Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Picks
23rd September, 20:40The Chicago Bears are averaging 9.5 points per game through two weeks. The Washington Redskins are allowing 31.5 points per game through two weeks.
It's an inept offense up against an inept defense under the bright lights of perhaps the NFL's worst stadium operated by one of its worst franchises, and perhaps the only redeeming quality of this game is that you can bet on it at PA online sportsbooks.
It's like a Thursday night football game, but three days early!
To say it has been a bumpy start for each of these two teams would be an understatement.
Washington, losers in eight of its last nine games dating back to last season, has dropped consecutive division games to start the season and enters this one as the NFC East's lone winless team after the Giants survived a missed 34-yard game-winning field goal attempt off the foot of Bucs kicker Matt Gay.
I'm sure Redskins fans enjoyed watching rookie quarterback Daniel Jones complete 63.9% of his passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns in addition to his two rushing touchdowns while their team trots out...Case Keenum.
To be fair, Keenum has played well (601 passing yards, five touchdowns) but what exactly is the upside?
With several young quarterbacks thrust into duty yesterday, maybe we'll see the NFL regular season debut of Dwayne Haskins tonight.
As for Chicago, quarterback Mitch Trubisky has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season and brings the league's 29 best QBR into tonight.
That helps explain why the Bears are a last-second 53-yard field goal in Denver away from an 0-2 start.
I don't know about you, but I'm brimming with excitement for this primetime affair, so strap in for some Monday Night Football knowledge with our Bears-Redskins betting preview!
If you're still betting with Joey from down the street, you're doing it wrong.
As Week 3 of the NFL season draws to a close tonight, there are still plenty of opportunities to take advantage of big sign up bonuses, odds boosts, risk-free bets, and fun promo offers served up by legal online sportsbooks.
We write this disclaimer almost every week, but we strongly urge you to shop around at the different sportsbooks to make sure you're getting the best odds and sign up deals. Let's survey the market for the best offers tonight.
FOX Bet has quickly emerged as one of the top betting options in both PA and NJ. FOX Bet's enticing $20 sign up bonus and $100 first bet match are only a minor part of the equation as the app's user-friendly experience, creative promotions, like tonight's Cris Carter's Call (an odds boost on Terry McLaurin to score a TD), and brand power have each contributed to its overall success. You can sign up here .
FanDuel Sportsbook PA, which is offering a $500 risk-free bet and Close Loss Insurance on all Week 3 NFL games, also remains a top option. FanDuel is also offering odds boosts on David Montgomery to score a touchdown (+300 from +220) and the tandem of Mitchell Trubisky and Case Keenum to combine for four or more TD passes (from +364 to +400).
Those of you in New Jersey, head on over to our NJ online sports betting page for a thorough rundown of all the best promos and sign-up bonuses:
William Hill NJ. Take advantage of a free $50 when you place a $50 bet by signing up. William Hill NJ is also offering a Trifecta Sweep promo. Bet on tonight's full-game spread, full-game total, and first half spread. If you hit on all three, your winnings will be boosted by a full bet.
PointsBet is also offering a generous promo-deposit $50, get $100, and it also offers cheap -105 point spread prices along with a First TD Early Payout promo. If your team scores the first touchdown of the game, you win your moneyline bet up to the first $100 staked.
Here are the current Bears-Redskins betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:
Let's check in with FiveThirtyEight's ELO point spread and win probability projections for Bears-Redskins to see how the model compares with the markets offered by legal sportsbooks.
While FiveThirtyEight's ELO model and other projection systems aren't necessarily an accurate predictor of a game's outcome, we think it's a worthwhile exercise to evaluate disparities between such models and sportsbook odds in search of possible betting value.
FiveThirtyEight has the Bears favored by only 2.5 points and with a 59% win probability. With the Bears favored by 5.5 points at most sportsbooks, the ELO measure would indicate there is substantial point spread value on Washington.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the Bears' -250 moneyline odds at FOX Bet, which is about the market standard, is 71.4%. That is substantially higher than Chicago's 59% win probability offered by ELO, meaning a Bears outright win is juiced up.
As for the Redskins, the implied probability of their +210 moneyline odds is only 32.3%. In relation to the ELO projection, there is some value on a Washington moneyline play.
Despite entering the season with championship aspirations, the Chicago Bears haven't inspired a ton of confidence in the early going. Even with a defense that has only surrendered a total of 24 points over the first two weeks, the Bears were a last-gasp 53-yard field last week from an 0-2 start.
Their struggles can mostly be attributed to an offense stuck in neutral with third-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky struggling to build on his success of a year ago.
Trubisky is completing only 58 percent of his pass attempts thus far, and last week, he followed up a disastrous performance at Soldier Field in the opener against the Packers with only 120 passing yards at Denver.
If he can't get a Chicago offense that has scored only one touchdown this season on track this week against a Washington defense that has surrendered 30 or more points in each of its first two games -- one that has allowed a total of 569 yards of offense in the second half -- then I'm not sure that he ever will. It can't be understated how bad this Redskins defense has played early on. They haven't gotten to the quarterback, they haven't stopped the run, they haven't stopped the pass, and they haven't kept points off the board.
As much as Chicago needs this game, the Redskins enter in full desperation mode. If they have any designs of jockeying for an unexpected playoff spot this season, they simply can't afford to fall to 0-3 (and 0-3 in the conference at that) in what looks to be a loaded NFC.
The key matchup in this game will be Chicago's elite defensive front against a vulnerable Redskins offense line that has actually outplayed expectations through two weeks, having allowed only two sacks.
Tonight presents an entirely different type of challenge, however, as they have to deal with Khalil Mack. Unsurprisingly, teams have double-teamed Mack early on, which helps explain why he has only one sack, but he's still generating a ton of pressure, often freeing up opportunities for his teammates.
Washington has dominated this series over the last 20+ years, winning and covering 10 of the last 12 meetings between the two teams.
Home underdogs of five or more points that are coming off of two straight losses are a strong 10-4 ATS in September games.
Jay Gruden teams have covered 6 of 10 games following a double digit home loss. The Cowboys beat the Redskins at FedEx Field by a 31-21 margin last week.
Home underdogs that are coming off a double digit loss at home are 8-2 ATS in their following game during the month of September. Those teams are also 6-0 ATS when an underdog of five or more points.
This same situational trend also extends through the month of October with such teams going 26-9 ATS in the first two months of the season. They are also 14-4 ATS when an underdog of five or more points.
Home underdogs that are on a two-game losing streak are only 3-15 ATS on Monday Night Football since the start of the 2003 season.
Home underdogs of five or more points that are coming off two consecutive losses are only 2-6 ATS on Monday Night Football since the start of the 2003 season.
Teams that are coming off a road win by three points or less and are then favored by five to seven points on the road in their following game are only 4-10 ATS dating back to the 2003 season.
Home underdogs that are coming off a double digit loss in their previous game are only 13-20 on Monday Night Football. All home teams are 21-36 ATS after a double digit loss dating back to 2003 and are only 12-21 ATS since 2009.
As of 1 p.m. Monday afternoon, 48% of the spread bets and 54% of the spread money is on the Bears across all reporting legal markets.
As for the total, 37% of totals bets and 54% of the money is on the over, so if you like to go against the money, Washington and the under it is.
I'm curious to see how Matt Nagy plays this one. Does he protect his struggling quarterback, limit risk, and build a conservative game plan designed to let his superior defense grind out a road victory against a desperate opponent? Or does he see Washington's multiple and obvious vulnerabilities and instead open things up in advantageous spot to get his offense some much needed confidence? I think the latter scenario is more likely, and I think if there was ever a spot where style points mattered, it's here.
Case Keenum has played well this season and Washington "needs" a win to whatever extent a team that's probably going to win between four and six games needs a win, but I just don't see how Washington effectively moves the ball against this Bears defense. Betting on Mitch Trubisky isn't exactly an enticing proposition, but that's what I'm going to do.