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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and best bets -

28th December, 19:39

The Golden State Warriors (9-24) are on a four game win streak as the Dallas Mavericks (20-10) drop by the Chase Center in San Francisco for an 8:30 p.m. ET tipoff. We analyze Mavericks-Warriors odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.

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NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today's betting odds. Odds last updated Saturday at 1:25 p.m. ET.

Mavericks 129, Warriors 107

Let me put the kibosh on something now: betting heavy favorites on the moneyline in regular-season NBA games. If you're laying -190 and up on an NBA regular-season game, then the other team better be playing with four players on the court. I cannot in good conscious recommend the Mavericks -667 on the moneyline. Hell, despite what I am going to write about the Mavericks-Warriors against the spread, if you were to bet a moneyline I'd prefer you just take the Warriors +475 for long run ROI plays.

As I see it though, PASS THE MONEYLINE. If they played each other 100 times, the Mavericks trample the Warriors 80 times.

New to sports betting? You would need to be $667 to turn a profit of $100 on the Mavericks to win straight up. Again - a bet you should never make in an NBA regular-season game.

You can tell by my projected score that I envision a one-sided affair in the Mavericks-Warriors game. The Mavericks are 10-3 on the road straight up and ATS. Their offense is potent: ranked first in Offensive Rating (116.4) and fourth in points per game (116.7). The rust should be knocked off Luka Doncic since it's his second game back from an ankle injury. In his first game back, Doncic put up 24 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists Thursday in a 102-98 win over the San Antonio Spurs.

Is the jig up for the Warriors, who are riding a four-game win streak but on the second night of a back-to-back? I believe so. They got an amazingly spirited effort from Draymond Green and the defense Friday night (along with some poor shooting from the Phoenix Suns). But going against a powerhouse offense, like the Mavericks have been so far this season, the MAVERICKS -11.5 (-106) is the play.

BET OVER 216.5 (-129) even though the vig is trash. I hate laying $129 to earn a profit of $100. Not ideal. But BetMGM knows what's up and that the 216.5 is super low that's why they are charging us more to take the OVER.

The Mavericks' over/under record is 19-11. The Warriors rank 25th in opponent's points per game, 29th in opponent's field goal% and 28th in opponent's 3-point %. Luka & Co. should score at will against this matador Warriors defense. There is a slight pause in my handicap only because the Warriors have just a 14-19 record in over/unders. Because the Mavericks offense should have success against the Warriors and the Warriors will be chucking 3s to stay in the game, I am down for a half-unit BET on OVER 216.5 (-129).

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