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Eagles vs. Vikings Betting Predictions: Odds and Picks
13th October, 14:14Some tense showdowns, along with the palpable animosity between their fanbases, has turned the Eagles-Vikings matchup into one of the NFL's best budding rivalries in recent seasons. And as if any additional intrigue was needed ahead of this game, one that figures to have serious ramifications on the NFC playoff picture, you can bet on it at PA online sportsbooks, which are offering a numbers of odds boosts on the Eagles today.
The Eagles and Vikings will meet for the fourth time in as many seasons this afternoon in Minnesota, and if recent history is any indication, we should be in for an intriguing football game.
After losing in the NFC Championship Game two seasons ago-a loss that denied Minnesota the distinction of becoming the first NFL team to play in the Super Bowl at home-the Vikings and their fans not only had to watch the Eagles go on to win one of the best Super Bowls of all-time in their stadium, they also had to watch that video of this drunk kid screaming, "GO BIIIIIIRRRRDDSSS!!!" on loop for an entire offseason.
Anyway, while the Vikings scored some revenge last season in a gift-wrapped 23-21 win at Lincoln Financial Field, the Eagles would once again have the last laugh as Minnesota folded down the stretch, allowing the Birds to slip into the postseason in the process.
As for today's meeting, sometimes the importance of these early-season games gets a bit overblown, but with both teams entering with a 3-2 record in a crowded NFC that currently features 11 teams over .500, the loser of today's game would create a significant roadblock in its path to the playoffs.
So, which team will score an important victory and grab the cover in the process? Let's get into it with our Eagles-Vikings betting predictions.
There are once again plenty of big odds boosts, generous welcome offers, and fun betting promos at the top PA online sportsbooks this week, so let's take a look at what's out there.
FOX Bet PA continues to offer a free $20 sign up bonus and up to a $100 deposit match that you can catch right here .
At FOX Bet this week are league-wide promos such as Colin Cowherd's Blazin' 5 Special. Lock in on his five-pack of plays, and if at least three picks hit, you win your bet. In addition to other league-wide bet boosts, FOX Bet is offering a parlay boost that includes the Eagles. Grab the Birds (+3.5), along with the Redskins (-4.5) and Saints (+2.5) to cover and cash in a +600 payout.
For those of you in New Jersey, stop by our NJ online sports betting page for a comprehensive rundown of all the state's best promos and welcome offers.
FOX Bet is running their same offers in New Jersey, but it is available in NJ via a separate app. Download it right here .
Indiana online sports betting went live late last month and DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, which will match your first bet up to $200, is far and away the state's top mobile option.
This game will be played indoors, so the weather is a non-factor. Good thing it's indoors, too. Temperatures in Minneapolis are expected to be in the mid-30s with an early-October wintry mix hitting the region. Isn't it too early for that stuff?
Here are the current Eagles-Vikings betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 8:30 a.m. Sunday morning.
We always like to include a look at how the point spreads and implied win probability of the moneyline options available at legal sportsbooks stack up with FiveThirtyEight's ELO point spread and win probability projections.
Let's get this acknowledgement out of the way: ELO and other models are not necessarily accurate predictors of a game's outcome, but occasionally, a pronounced disparity pops up that suggests there could be some value on a certain side.
This week, FiveThirtyEight's ELO projection has the Vikings favored by 1.5 points and with a 55% win probability. With the Eagles currently getting 3.5 points across most legal sportsbooks, the ELO measure indicates there is about 2.5 points of betting value on Philly, which is particularly substantial as the spread crosses over three points.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the Vikings at -182 moneyline odds is 64.5%. That's notably higher than their 55% ELO win probability, meaning the Vikings moneyline is juiced up by this measure.
As for the Eagles, the implied probability of their +160 moneyline odds is only 38.3%, meaning there is some moneyline value on the Eagles when paired with the ELO projection.
The Eagles moved from dead-last in the NFL in sacks to 12th last week after becoming the first NFL team to record 10 sacks and two defensive touchdowns in their blowout win over the Jets.
That probably helps explain why Luke Falk, the quarterback who was thoroughly overwhelmed in that game, is no longer with the Jets.
While the Eagles should feel good about their breakout performance against the Jets, they face a much more difficult task today against a Vikings offense that finally got on track in a blowout win last week over the Giants. After scoring just six points the previous week against Chicago, a performance that led to wide receiver Adam Thielen voicing his frustrations with Vikings passing game, quarterback Kirk Cousins rebounded by completing 81.6% of his passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns.
That sets up a Jekyll and Hyde matchup today between the Eagles defense and Cousins.
Will the Eagles' defensive front consistently get after the quarterback as they did a week ago, or will they look like the unit that recorded only three sacks over its first four games that helped contribute to a league-worst pass defense?
Will Kirk Cousins push the ball down the field as he did a week ago, or will he stagnate a talented set of skill players like he has on multiple occasions this season?
The answers to those questions will likely decide the winner.
Note: All trends include data dating back to the start of the 2003 season.
The Vikings Have Been Dominant at Home
Minnesota has crushed it at home under Mike Zimmer. The numbers present a daunting task for the Eagles this afternoon:
History shows big problems for short road underdogs that enter on a roll:
Frankly, it was a difficult process to find trends that worked against Minnesota today, but I was able to dig up some problematic trends built around short home favorites coming off of a blowout win:
The Eagles are 4-2 ATS under Doug Pederson when they have scored 30 points or more in their previous two games.
Here a few quick notes to know about the total, which is currently 44.5 at most sportsbooks.
The over is 18-8 in all regular season road games coached by Doug Pederson.
The under has hit in six of Minnesota's last seven games.
When the road team is averaging between 28-29 points per game and the total is set between 44-45 points, the under is 15-7.
I'm still bullish on the Eagles' long-term prospects this season, but I have strong concerns about this game. Kirk Cousins takes a lot of heat, and rightfully so, but he has had success in his career against them and even beat them on the road a season ago. I expect that he's going to make his share of plays throwing the ball to both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, as will running back Dalvin Cook, who's one of the game's most dangerous offensive weapons.
I'm also not sure the Eagles can consistently run the ball on this Minnesota front, which will put continued pressure on Carson Wentz to convert third-and-long situations. Despite his ability to do so, that remains a dangerous way to live.
I'll take the home team in what should be an extremely loud and hostile environment.