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Giants vs. Patriots Betting Predictions: Odds and Picks for Thursday Night Football
10th October, 18:34It will be a historic matchup between the Giants and the Patriots when the two teams take the field tonight at Gillette Stadium. It may not be a good game -- or even remotely competitive -- but it will be historic nonetheless.
Oddsmakers have installed the Patriots as an overwhelming 16.5-point favorite, including those at PA online sportsbooks. If the current point spread holds or swells, not only will the Patriots close as the biggest favorite in a Thursday game dating back to at least the turn of the century, the Giants would also be the biggest underdog in franchise history.
A rookie quarterback making his fourth career start without his top two running backs, top wide receiver, and top tight end isn't a recipe for success. Throw in the fact that said rookie quarterback will be making the start in terrible weather conditions on the road against the sport's most dominant team and its best coach, and, well, that's not great!
Of course, New York once won a Super Bowl by knocking off New England as a double-digit underdog, so you never know, but unless Cody Latimer plans on catching a Daniel Jones jump ball or two with his face mask, it's hard to imagine the Giants will pull off another stunner tonight.
Can Pat Shurmur's squad pull off the unthinkable or at least keep it within 20 points? Let's run through all of the best betting promos and odds, along with some picks and predictions in our Giants vs. Patriots betting preview.
There are plenty of odds boosts and excellent promos available as Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off tonight. As always, we encourage bettors to shop around and take advantage of the market's best deals.
Let's start at FOX Bet PA, which two weeks ago offered +100 odds on Carson Wentz to throw a touchdown pass against the Packers. In addition to its usual $20 sign-up bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab right here , FOX Bet will be running back that promo with a similar +100 odds offer on Daniel Jones to throw a touchdown tonight.
Unlike two weeks ago, however, when that promo was a virtual lock, a Jones touchdown pass is no sure thing against a Patriots defense that hasn't allowed a passing touchdown through five games this season. Still, even against a stingy New England secondary and down several weapons, +100 odds on a Jones touchdown toss represents excellent value as a separate competing local sportsbook is offering a -205 price on the same prop.
FOX Bet is also running several bet boosts ahead of tonight's game, along with a Custom Sal's Money Back Special. Catch a +600 payout on a bet of up to $25 if the Giants score less than 14.5 points and the Patriots register a defensive touchdown.
This is a solid proposition given what is expected to be poor weather conditions paired with the Patriots' penchant for creating turnovers. New England has already generated 11 interceptions, a fumble recovery and two defensive touchdowns this season. Plus, if the bet doesn't win, don't sweat it -- you get your money back.
Over at FanDuel Sportsbook PA, they continue to run a $500 risk-free bet offer for new users and a close loss insurance of up to $50 on all moneyline wagers that lose by six points or less. I'm not so sure I'd take a shot on the Pats at -1100 or Giants at +770 tonight, but if you think the Giants can somehow hang, then this promo could come in handy.
For those of you in the state of New Jersey, check our comprehensive NJ online sports betting page that is stocked with sportsbook reviews, welcome offers, and sign-up bonuses.
FOX Bet has also emerged as one of the Garden State's top betting options and is offering the same promos noted above, but it's available via a separate app that can you download right here .
Think the Giants can make some noise tonight?
Grab Charissa Thompson's custom bet boost of Daniel Jones to throw a touchdown and the Giants to score more than 14.5 points for a +300 payout.
Think Josh Gordon is due for a breakout performance? Check out Cris Carter's boost on Josh Gordon to go over 75 receiving yards that pays at +140 odds.
No betting preview would be complete without a look at the weather.
There's a reason this game total opened around 46 points at most legal online sportsbooks and is now all the way down to 41.5 at most shops.
The weather is expected to be brutal at Gillette Stadium tonight with rain and strong winds likely. Temperatures are expected to hover in the low 50's at kickoff with winds gusting to 17 mph.
Certainly, these are less than ideal scoring conditions, which I'll touch on in a bit.
Here are the current Giants-Patriots betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 12:00 p.m. Thursday afternoon:
Before we get to the game preview and pertinent betting trends, let's take a quick look at how the current point spread and implied win probability of the moneyline odds stack up with FiveThirtyEight's ELO point spread and win probability projections.
Of course, ELO and similar projection models are not an exact science, nor can they be used as a reliable predictor of an event's outcome, but we feel it's a worthwhile exercise to evaluate multiple sources in search of some possible betting value.
As for tonight's game, the ELO projection has the Patriots as a 15-point favorite with a 90% win probability. With the Patriots currently favored by 16.5 points at most legal sportsbooks, ELO suggests there's some slight spread value on the Giants.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of FOX Bet's New England -1400 moneyline odds is 93.3%, which means that price is juiced up when compared to the ELO projection. FanDuel's significantly cheaper -1000 Patriots moneyline price has a 90.9% win probability, which is basically in line with the ELO model.
As for the Giants, the implied win probability of their +800 moneyline odds at FOX Bet is 11.1%, while their +700 odds at FanDuel carry an 11.1% win probability, meaning there exists no moneyline value on the Giants.
To say the Giants face a daunting task in this one would be a gross understatement.
The Patriots are lights-out at Gillette Stadium under Bill Belichick and will be facing a decimated Giants offense that is led by a rookie quarterback making his fourth career start.
That explains why the Giants are the biggest underdog in the franchise's long and storied history tonight, eclipsing the 15.5-point underdog they were against San Francisco back in 1995 (New York lost, 20-16, but covered the spread).
In fact, if you're looking for a reason to feel good about the Giants in this spot, they do have some success as a big-time underdog. They won Super Bowl 42 as a 12.5-point underdog and stunned the Broncos in Denver as a 14-point dog with an outright win during the 2013 season.
Then again, they weren't missing, well, all of their primary playmakers in those games.
The Giants will be without running backs Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman, wide receiver Sterling Sheppard, and tight end Evan Engram. Throw in what's expected to be wet and windy weather conditions, and it's hard to imagine a scenario in which New York will be able to move the football against the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense.
That's not meant to be a knock on Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who has showed promise early in his NFL career, but he has also struggled with consistency.
Now, he's going up against a Patriots defense that leads the NFL in total yards allowed per game, scoring defense, yards allowed per play, interceptions, quarterback hits, third-down stop percentage, and defensive red zone efficiency. Granted, New England has played the likes of the Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Steelers, and Redskins, but its dominant defensive output remains impressive.
Jones has thrown for 760 yards to go along with four touchdowns and three interceptions through his first four games (three starts), but struggled a week ago at home against the Vikings when he completed only 55.3% of his passes for 182 yards in a 28-10 blowout loss. After a sterling first start against the Bucs, Jones has failed to eclipse a quarterback rating of 80 in each of his last two games.
Without their top skill guys available, it will be absolutely imperative that left tackle Nate Solder, who struggled against Minnesota, plays better against linebacker Jamie Collins. Through the season's first five games, Collins has emerged as a legit NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate. If Solder, who started nearly 100 games for the Patriots before signing with the Giants, doesn't hold up, this one could get out of hand quickly.
In order for the Giants to hang around, they'll absolutely need to win the turnover battle, which is a big ask against a Patriots team that leads the NFL with a plus-7 turnover differential this season. Not only has the Patriots top-ranked passing defense, one allowing only 160.4 yards per game, yet to surrender a passing touchdown, New England has also racked up 11 interceptions and recovered two fumbles through its first five games.
Believe it or not, there is some information out there that supports a play on the Giants tonight.
Big Road Dogs, Big Success
Road underdogs of 16 points or more are 20-14-2 ATS and a strong 8-2 ATS in non-conference games. Road underdogs of 16 points or more that are coming off a loss are 10-6-1 ATS after the month of September, while road underdogs of 14 points or more are 8-4-1 ATS in primetime games.
Finding a Flaw
It's hard to find data that works against the Patriots, but here's what I found. The Patriots are only 7-10-1 ATS when they win their previous game by 25 points or more and 3-6 ATS when they win by 25 points or more and are favored by 10 points or more. They're also only 2-3 ATS at home as a primetime favorite when favored by double digits.
The Giants' injury situation, home-field advantage, and a significant talent advantage are strong reasons to back the Patriots, but there's also a ton of trend data that supports a play on them.
They are Dominant. Period.
The Patriots are 47-19-3 during the month October, which is their best month against the spread. They are 23-9-3 ATS at home during the month of October and 4-1 ATS as a double-digit home favorite during the month.
When the Patriots are favored at home and played their previous game on the road, they are 50-30-3 ATS. When they are favored at home and coming off a road win, they are 39-23-3 ATS.
That's Some Spread
Big points spreads haven't been a big problem for New England. Not only are the Pats 2-1 ATS when favored by two or more touchdowns this season, they are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games when favored by 14 points or more.
When the Patriots are coming off a win and favored by 14 points or more at home, they're 10-5 ATS.
NFL teams that are favored at home by 14 points or more that have only four days rest are 3-1 ATS.
I talked earlier about what's expected to be poor weather conditions. It matters.
The under is 183-149-3 (55.1%) when winds average at least 13 mph during NFL regular season games. That may not seem like an overwhelming number, but a $100 bettor would've netted $2,326 dollars betting the under on such games.
When home teams are favored by 13 points or more and winds average at least 15 mph, the under is 7-3 ATS. When teams are favored by 10 points or more with those same winds, the under is 6-11-1 ATS.
It's not like the Patriots have had a next-level potent offense this season, and they, too, will have to navigate poor weather conditions tonight. It's entirely possible that New England doesn't go all-in on running up the score in what should be a pretty comfortable win from the jump. It's also entirely possible the backdoor will be left open, which is how the Jets covered against the Patriots as a big underdog earlier this season. That being said, I can't back the Giants with their extensive injuries, nor can I back a rookie quarterback on the road against Bill Belichick and a top-ranked defense. Can't do it.