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How To Cash In Betting Logan Paul Vs. KSI: 3 Bets Where Oddsmakers Provide Value
8th November, 00:03Well, here I am. The intrigue was just too much for me to stay away from, even with my hoity toity boxing purest ego telling me not to pay attention. The fight on Saturday night in Los Angeles will be the ultimate test of utilizing line value, line history and percentage of money coming in as the leading metrics to gauge where value can be attributed. I'm always preaching during my bettor's guides, the need to provide the best possible advice with keeping the risk vs. reward factor in mind. The best analogy that comes to mind in this case is when a plane needs to rely on Autoland to make a safe landing when there's near zero visibility. There's just not enough data on either fighter or sample size to understand who will win this fight with a high probability of certainty and by the method. Even though we have 18 minutes of the two competing in an amateur six round bout in 2018 and a ton of social media hyping the fight, it's still not enough to determine who's going to win on Saturday night with no headgear and 10 ounce gloves, so with that in mind, we let the oddsmakers help guide us by the numbers they present. After all, it's not my boxing mind I'm using for this particular fight. It's my logic mind.
Although it's technically a professional boxing match, it's an entirely different animal when it comes to providing betting advice. When Olajide William Olatunji, better known as KSI by his 20.5 million YouTube followers squares off against his nemesis Logan Paul who has 19.5 million YouTube followers, at the Staples Center in a cruiserweight contest, sports bettors will have many ways to cash in for these dual pro debuts.
First and foremost, it's important to note that both Paul and KSI have already fought, as amateurs on August 25, 2018 in Manchester, England as referenced above. The fight ended a majority draw with two judges scoring it 57-57 and the third judge scoring it for KSI 58-57. This time around, the head gear is off and both fighter's have had more time to prepare for their first professional bout.
According to the boxing odds at BetOnline, Paul is a -195 (bet $195 to win $100) favorite while KSI is a +160 (bet $100 to win $160) underdog.
For starters, Paul has been the favorite since the opening line of -193 with 61% of the money just two days out from the fight, coming in on Paul to 39% coming in on KSI. The line hasn't moved much at all throughout this promotion.
One of the important factors to remember is that this fight is only six rounds. Very rarely do sportsbooks provide odds for anything less than 10 and 12 round fights. With that being said, here are my three best bets.
1. THE FIGHT TO BE A DRAW+1000 (Bet $100 to win $1000). I'm throwing it out there right from the beginning. Why not? It's only six rounds and the first time they met, it was a majority draw in KSI's backyard. The value is too good and considering that neither fighter seems to be head and shoulders above the other, the value of +1000 is too good to pass up. The total rounds going over 4 1/2 is at -140, so the consensus is that this fight will go the distance. It's not like either fighter has a real career ahead as a professional boxer and don't be surprised if we see and draw and the two combatants decided to settle score once and for all in a Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship match.
2. THE FIGHT TO GO OVER 4 1/2 rounds -140 (Bet $140 to win $100). Remember, it's all about value. The value here although -140, in normal sports betting terms, that's not a big favorite bet at all. We're already banking on a draw above, so in order for that to happen, the fight would need to go the distance. We're doubling down and reinforcing that bet. It's a safe bet for a six round bout, considering no one seemed in any real danger in the first bout. They both landed shots, albeit, with headgear. I'm confident barring a one hitter quitter, I think we're going the distance. At -140, it's worth the risk.
3. LOGAN PAUL BY DECISION OR TECHNICAL DECISION +375 (Bet $100 to win $375). So this bet cancels out the first bet of a draw, but the value is too good. If it does end in an draw, then you're cashing in at +1000. If it goes to a decision, then you're picking up the $100 and if Paul wins by decision, you're picking up the $375. It's good value and a smart bet based on Paul also being the favorite to win. Paul has the height and reach advantage and looks like the naturally bigger guy. I feel that he played around too much in the first fight and will have a better boxing approach to the rematch. He will be in better shape, better conditioned and will have a game plan this time around. The crazy thing about this bet is that KSI is also at +424 by decision or technical decision, so the oddsmakers either feel that another draw can be upon us or that this fight is too close to call, so if we do feel that it's going to go the distance, the smart money is on Paul.
The only way you don't win with these picks is if the fight ends by KO or if KSI wins the bout.
Bet one of them, bet all of them, whatever you do with this information, please bet responsibly.