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NBA Betting Tips
At a time when basketball is being played at its fastest pace in decades by the most athletic people the world has ever seen, ironically it’s rest that is becoming one of the league’s largest talking points and something key to consider in NBA betting.
Consider the number of players in the NBA who have averaged 35.0 or more minutes per game in recent years. That’s, for example, 9 minutes in the first quarter, 7 more in the second, 9 more in the third quarter and 10 in the final period. That’s clearly a significant player who adds significant value to a team.
Why NBA Teams Rest Players More
There are a host of reasons why players simply aren’t playing as many minutes.
Benches are deeper as the talent pool across the league has improved; players are being paid more than ever before and thus are more valuable investments that need proper rest and care; the playoffs matter, and teams such as the Spurs and Warriors are proving that rest during the regular season pays dividends by season’s end.
In regards to the last note, the NBA has attempted to combat teams resting their players. In 2017 Adam Silver and the league passed a rule that could have teams fined up to $100,000 for resting healthy players.
The league has also moved up the start date of the NBA regular season (and cut preseason games from eight to five) to eliminate teams playing four games in five nights and lessening the number of back-to-backs a team plays.
NBA Betting Tips For Back-To-Backs
In the last five seasons the best win percentage teams had on zero days rest was 46.4% in 2015. And while 2015 and 2016 saw teams on no days rest post winning records against the spread, 2019 is on pace to blow that number out of the water.
Perhaps oddsmakers will adjust, but this early in the season it’s clear that well-rested teams are adjusting better to playing on zero days rest. It’s the new trend in the league, and it’s also a trend that could yield wins at the sportsbook.
So when you see a team playing on no days rest, and assume that oddsmakers have taken this into account with the spread and moneyline, don’t just write them off. They’re faring better than they have the last five seasons.