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NFL Week 12 betting guide: Odds, key matchups, stats & trends, injury report for every game
20th November, 17:18Now that week 11 is in the books, we look straight ahead towards the upcoming week's NFL odds board, a veritable 14-game buffet of pivotal matchups for NFL bettors to sink their teeth into.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review
Houston Texans kick off the week with a Thursday Night showdown against the Indianapolis Colts, all the while looking to bounce back from a let-down performance against the Ravens. Sunday serves up several intriguing matchups, none more so than the blockbuster showdown between the Packers and Niners at Levi's Stadium; and rounding out the NFL betting action is a Monday Night showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams.
In this column, we analyze each and every game in the context of the NFL odds, all the while sifting through various NFL betting stats and trends, and much, much more.
The Texans will look to bounce back in week 12 against the Colts at the NRG Stadium after getting a right spanking in Baltimore by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Deshaun Watson and the Texans et al simply failed to show up and went on to lose 41-7.
The Colts, meanwhile, put in a solid 33-13 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. When the main talking point ahead of the game was the return of Nick Foles to the Jaguars' lineup, Jacoby Brissett made absolutely sure he was the main talking point in the postscript. Subtly reminding all and sundry - especially those in the AFC South field - who the new boss in the hood really is.
Both the Colts and Texans are on a level at 6-4 in the AFC South standings, but the Colts have the head-to-head edge having won the first meeting 30-23 at Lucas Oil Stadium. (The Colts with Andy Luck as their signal-caller also beat the Texans in the playoffs last season).
Deshaun Watson and the Texans are better than their week 11 result in Baltimore would suggest. Bookmakers opened with the Texans giving up 3.5 points to the Colts on the NFL odds board, and early public betting appears to be pushing the needle in Houston's favor (several sportsbooks are already hanging Texans on a 4-point spread).
If you're giving the Colts a nod on your NFL picks, grab the points now while you can. By all accounts, this should be a close affair, and with increasing betting volume this NFL line is likely to swing back down again by kick-off. By that same token, for those that are down with the Texans then wait it out. Closer to kick-off you may be able to get a lower number, potentially even the key field goal number.
IND - WR T.Y. Hilton (Calf), T Anthony Castonzo (Toe), TE Eric Ebron (Ankle), S George Odum (Shoulder), CB Shakial Taylor (Ankle), TE Mo Alie-Cox (Thumb), CB Kenny Moore II (Shin), CB Rock Ya-Sin (Ankle) are all listed as questionable for TNF; RB Marlon Mack (Hand) is out indefinitely; S Khari Willis (Concussion) is out for TNF.
HOU - QB Deshaun Watson (Ankle) is listed as probable for TNF; LB Dylan Cole (Knee), Tashaun Gipson Sr. (Back), G Tytus Howard (Knee), CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Foot), S Justin Reid (Concussion) and S Mike Adams (Concussion) are all listed as questionable for TNF.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Colts vs. Texans
The Atlanta Falcons must have undergone some sort of revolutionary identity transplant because they're unrecognizable since coming out of their week 9 bye. Indeed, the last two weeks are exactly what many thought they'd see from the Falcons and why Atlanta was tipped in preseason NFL betting markets by many experts as a sleeper NFL pick to spot.
At 3-7 SU it might be a little bit too late for the Dirty Birds as far as the postseason goes, but if the Falcons keep this up they just might salvage some respect by season end. What about that defense? In the last two games, they've held opponents to 12 points combined. Divisional opponents, mind you.
If this trend continues, the 3-7 SU Bucs are in for an excruciating trip to Atlanta. Well, the Bucs can be counted on making things excruciatingly difficult for themselves. They don't need much help on that score, particularly Jameis Winston who continues to turnover the ball at a frantic rate. There was plenty of evidence of why he's just not the solution for Tampa in last week's loss 34-17 loss to the Saints.
Before the bye week, betting on the Falcons as the favorites was a wasteful exercise. Heck, betting on the Falcons as faves or underdogs was akin to throwing money at a problem (Falcons were 2-6 ATS in their first 8 games). Since week 9, they're 2-0 SU and ATS with a +30.25 differential versus the spread on average. Talk about turning the tables.
If you're buying what the Falcons are selling, grabbing the Falcons at -4 now is an exploitable bet. Early signs show the needle is moving up (60% or early ticket count is on the Falcons according to SBR Consensus betting reports) and several sportsbooks are already hanging the Falcons on -4.5 as a result.
TB - DB M.J. Stewart (Knee) is out until mid-December, QB Jameis Winston (Ankle) and G Ali Marpet (Ankle) are both listed as probable for Sunday; DL William Gholston (Ankle) is questionable for Sunday.
ATL - DE Takkarist McKinley (Shoulder) and DE Adrian Clayborn (Groin) are both questionable against Bucs.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The Denver Broncos very nearly pulled off what would have been a seismic upset in week 11 to send shockwaves up the Richter scale through NFL betting markets. Broncos led the Vikings 20-0 going into the second half at U.S. Bank Stadium, before fritting the lead away and succumbing to the 27-23 loss.
All was not lost. Spread bettors that backed the Broncos as the whopping +10.5 closing underdogs were rewarded, and by that token the public appears to be high on the Broncos at the expense of Buffalo Bills in week 12 hoping to cash in again on a suddenly attractive NFL underdog.
As it is, the Broncos are taking in almost 60% of early tickets. A consequence that has the NFL line moving in Denver's direction, taking the point spread down from Broncos +5 to +4 at most sports betting outlets. The total is also on the move on the NFL odds board, going up from an initial serving of 36.5 to 37.5.
Brandon Allen is still an unknown but he seems to have sparked life in the Broncos' camp, namely the offense as the Broncos are getting points on the board with more frequency than before. However, a two-game sample is still a small cross-section to build on. With the NFL line in motion, bettors might want to play it cool to see how the market progresses before pulling the trigger either way. That said, the low total is exploitable for OVER bettors now.
DEN - FB Andy Janovich (Elbow) is out for the season; DL Mike Purcell (Ribs) is listed as day-to-day.
BUF - S Siran Neal (Concussion) and T Ty Nsekhe (Ankle) are both listed as questionable against Broncos.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Broncos vs. Bills
Danny Dimes mania must seem a lifetime ago now. Since winning his first two starts, Daniel Jones and the Giants have been on a downward trajectory - six straight losses that include just a 1-5 ATS mark when they covered as the +6.5 road underdogs in a 31-26 loss to the Lions.
Chicago's divisional-winning campaign of 2018 must seem like a dream now, a fantastical sojourn down the NFC North rabbit hole. Last week's loss to the Rams in Sunday Night Football only highlighted everything that is (and maybe always was) wrong with the Bears on national television:. Mitch Trubisky.
Indeed, the quarterback was yanked out of the game in the final minutes (with an alleged hip injury) to give way to Chase Daniels. For all the good it did Chicago.
It's hard to feel confident about either of these teams for week 12 NFL picks. Given the Giants' woes and significant injury list, it's hard to trust them against the spread even when they're getting a bucketload of points.
On the flip side, the Bears laying a touchdown or thereabouts seems unreasonable when they're 1-5 ATS in their last six games. The only cover they pulled off was in a win over the Lions, who were without Matthew Stafford.
As it is, Trubisky remains a question mark ahead of week 12. As does the status of Saquon Barkley and Even Engram for the Giants. Perhaps it's best to wait to see where this spread is later in the week before pulling the trigger either way.
NYG - TE Rhett Ellison (Concussion), RB Saquon Barkley (Shoulder), CB Janoris Jenkins (Concussion), T Nate Solder (Concussion), C Jon Halapio (Hamstring), T Mike Remmers (Back) and TE Evan Engram (Foot) are all listed as questionable against Bears.
CHI - QB Mitch Trubisky (Hip), OL Bobby Massie (Back) and TE Adam Shaheen (Foot) are all listed as questionable against the NY Giants.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Giants vs. Bears
The Steelers are faced with a must-win game after succumbing to a loss to Cleveland last Thursday, a game that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. In any event, Pittsburgh is faced with a second straight divisional foe in as many weeks and by all accounts this is a straight-up win in the bag.
The Bengals remain winless on 2019 despite the quarterback change from Andy Dalton to rookie Ryan Finley. Although the Bengals succumbed to their second-straight loss with the rookie signal caller, the 17-10 defeat in Oakland had a better ring to it than the previous beatdown against the Ravens at Paul Brown.
Lookahead lines had the Steelers laying -7.5 at early doors, but early betting has seen this line trimmed down to -6.5 and, even, -6 in some cases. It's not often the Steelers are favored this season, given all the adversity they've faced, but the -6 point spread currently on offer does seem reasonable for week 12 NFL picks. Keep in mind, the Steelers hammered the Bengals earlier this season 27-3 at Heinz Field.
PIT - C Maurice Pouncey (Suspension) is eligible week 15; LB Olasunkanmi Adeniyi (Concussion), CB Artie Burns (Knee), RB James Conner (Shoulder) WR Dionte Johnson (Concussion) and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Concussion) are all listed as questionable against Bengals.
CIN - CB William Jackson III (Arm) and WR Auden Tate (Concussion) are both listed as questionable.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Steelers vs. Bengals
The Cleveland Browns appear to be enjoying a little bit of late season momentum winning two in a row, including masterminding their first win over Pittsburgh in five years -albeit without Big Ben under center. It's no surprise, oddsmakers tip the Browns as the massive home chalk to the visiting Miami Dolphins on Sunday, but the double-digit spread does seem a bit overly generous.
Early public betting appears to be clamoring on Miami's bandwagon, betting down the Dolphins from an opening +12.5 to +10.5 at various sports betting outlets. The Dolphins are coming off a 37-20 loss to Buffalo, but they've covered in five of their last six games - three of which included double-digit spreads and one of which they won outright.
Is this a trap game for Cleveland? Consider the Dolphins beat the Colts 16-12 on the road to cover as the +11 underdogs a few weeks ago. In their last six games, they've also shown a lack of quit that has earned them some fans. On the flip side, the Browns have underestimated several opponents, including the Broncos and Titans this season.
MIA - S Bobby McCain (Shoulder) and WR Gary Jennings Jr. (Shoulder) are questionable against Browns.
CLE - DE Myles Garrett (Suspension) is out for the season and DT Larry Ogunjobi (Suspension) is eligible week 13; S Morgan Burnett (Achilles) is out for the season.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Dolphins vs. Browns
The Saints bounced back with a comprehensive win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 11, a win that saw the NFC hopefuls improve to an 8-2 SU record and maintain the pressure on the Packers and Niners in the race for top seed.
For a second straight week the Saints take on an NFC South opponent, the Carolina Panthers who are coming off a loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The Panthers have now lost two in a row and slip to .500 on the season. It's no coincidence this run of form coincides with two suspect games for Kyle Allen. One wonders whether opposing coaches have figured out Kyle Allen or whether the announcement he was the starter for the foreseeable put untold pressure on the undrafted quarterback's shoulders.
It's one thing when a quarterback is playing freely (with house money so to speak) all the while looking to capitalize on an opportune chance. Another when the burden of expectation is firmly at your feet. When it's suddenly your job to lose and not gain.
Whatever it is it's tough to tell. What is looking likely however is Allen's woes aren't going to end. IF Brees is anywhere nearly as hot as he was last week and the Saints defense goes after Allen as they did Winston, it could be another tough day in the office.
Having said that the Saints opened as the whopping -11.5 home chalk, which does seem a touch generous. That NFL line didn't hold water for long as the public has bet down the Saints to as low as -8.5. Some sportsbooks have come down to Saints laying -10.
Depending on which side of the coin NFL bettors are looking to bet, shopping around for the best line that meets the wager is recommended. There's a big difference between backing the Saints at -8.4 and -10, obvs.
CAR - CB Ross Cockrell (Quadricep) and T Dennis Daley (Groin) are both questionable against Saints.
NO - TE Josh Hill (Concussion) is questionable against Panthers.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Panthers vs. Saints
The Jets overcome some adversity - from mono to seeing ghosts to a slew of injuries - to finally put together their first winning streak of the season. A whopping two-game winning streak that includes wins over the Giants and Redskins. Are they ready to take it up a notch though and beat an above .500 side at home?
Well, the Jets did upset the Cowboys at MetLife earlier this season so it's not without the realm of possibility. The Oakland Raiders are enjoying their own surge of three-straight wins ahead of week 12, but it's worth noting the Raiders haven't blown the competition out of the water this season. In fact, they've been winning by the skin of their teeth for the most part.
Raiders are 6-4 ATS with a -2.5 losing margin on average and just a +0.1 differential versus the spread. On the road, the Raiders are 2-2 ATS with a -8.5 losing margin on average and a -2.4 differential versus the spread.
Lookahead lines had the Raiders as the -4.5 road faves, but since open doors the public has bet up the hosts prompting the line to move down to Raiders -3. While the key field goal number feels reasonable, bettors might want to play the wait and see game to see how this line unfolds closer to kick-off before pulling the trigger.
NY Jets - T Kelvin Beachum (Ankle), T Chuma Edoga (Ankle) and LB Paul Worrilow (Quadricep) are listed as questionable against Raiders.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Raiders vs. Jets
How the Philadelphia Eagles could even be considered home favorites in this matchup in Vegas lookahead lines is unimaginable. Yet, that is the case as early servings tipped the Eagles with the customary field goal edge at home.
Evidently, that hasn't gone down with the public at all. Early money is pouring in on the Seahawks (almost 70% of early wagering tickets according to SBR Consensus Betting reports), forcing the NFL line to move dramatically. As it is, the Eagles are merely -2 favorites. It won't be surprising if the script completely flips on this game and the Seahawks close as the road chalk. The Eagles fell flat against the Patriots in week 11 and lost 17-10 with Carson Wentz not playing up to snuff.
For those that are buying what the Seahawks are selling, grabbing the points now is worthwhile. The Seahawks are coming off a bye week after upsetting the Niners on the road in week 10. Few would be shocked if the Seahawks kept the ball rolling with yet another road upset.
SEA - WR Tyler Lockett (Leg) is listed as probable against Eagles; TE Luke Willson (Hamstring) is listed as doubtful against Eagles.
PHI - T Lane Johnson (Concussion) and RB Jordan Howard (Stinger) are listed as questionable against Seahawks; RB Darren Sproles (Hip Flexor) is on I-R.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Seahawks vs. Eagles
The Lions played the Cowboys rather well despite succumbing to the 35-27 loss. Indeed, they gave America's favorite team a right run for its money all the while backup Jeff Driskel led the charge.
Going into week 12, Matthew Stafford's status is still up in the air. It's more likely than not, Driskel will start against the Redskins on Sunday. Why risk Stafford in a game that isn't going to salvage their season.
The Redskins, meanwhile, are 1-9-0 SU on the season and winless with Haskins in his last two starts. The rookie had a subpar showing against the Jets in the nation's capital and it looks like he'll be enduring growing pains for some time to come.
Overall, there's not much to like about the Redskins right now. So, it's no surprise, Washington opened as the nominal home puppies on the NFL odds board.
Early betting has pushed the line however to above a field goal in favor of the Lions. These two teams are certainly going nowhere fast this season but on balance the Lions are the better team in this matchup. This should be a long overdue win for the maligned Lions. Betting the Lions to win and cover isn't a bad idea for week 12 picks.
DET - QB Matthew Stafford (Back) is out indefinitely; CB Jamal Agnew (Ankle), FB Nick Bawden (Knee), DE Trey Flowers (Concussion), OL Frank Ragnow (Concussion) and DB Tracy Walker (Knee) are all listed as questionable against Redskins.
WAS - P Tress Way (Leg) and DL Daron Payne (Ankle) are both listed as questionable against Lions.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Lions vs. Redskins
The Tennessee Titans recorded an eyebrow raising upset over the Kansas City Chiefs a couple of weeks ago before going into a bye week. It was a statement-making win for both Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill and saw the Titans improve to 5-5 SU in the AFC South.
Next up for the Titans is a divisional foe in Jacksonville Jaguars. Nick Foles' belated return didn't go to plan as the Jaguars lost to the Colts 33-13 last Sunday and slipped to 4-6 SU on the season.
For both sides, this is a must-win game if they hope to keep their playoff bid alive. More so for the Jags, who are quickly losing faith in public betting circles. Earlier in the season, the Jags beat the Titans 20-7; however, both teams had different quarterbacks.
Vegas opened this game on a field goal advantage for the Titans, a customary edge awarded to home teams in a tossup game. This is a total tossup for week 12 NFL picks. Could Foles get his groove back with a second game under his belt?
JAX - DE Lerentree McCray (Hamstring) and TE Josh Oliver (Back) are both listed on I-R.
Dallas Cowboys are faced with their toughest ask this season when they take on the New England Patriots at the Foxboro. Appropriately, oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as the massive road underdogs.
Thus far, the Cowboys have enjoyed immense success against questionable opposition wins against the Giants, Redskins, Eagles, Dolphins and Lions are hardly anything to write home about. They've yet to beat a legitimate contender home or away. Cowboys are 0-3 SU against winning teams.
Should the Cowboys pull off the unthinkable against the Patriots, it would put paid on all the criticism they've endured thus far. How realistic are their chances though? Not very, by all accounts.
Terrific Tom may not be so terrific this season but the Patriots defense is nothing to scoff at. Moreover, beating the Patriots at the Foxboro is a tough ask for any team, never mind the Cowboys.
Opening markets tipped the Patriots as the -7 home chalk but the NFL line has come down to -6 already with several sports betting outlets. Given the Patriots are typically currency at the NFL betting exchange, attacking the point spread now for week 12 NFL picks is worthwhile.
That said, playing the waiting game to see if the NFL line drops further in order to grab a better number for the Patriots is also an option. There might be late money coming down the wire on the Boys that could push the line down further.
DAL - CB Anthony Brown (Tricep) and C Adam Redmond (Back) are both listed on I-R; WR Amari Cooper (Knee) is listed as probable against Patriots; S Xavier Woods (Finger) and T La'el Collins (Knee) are both listed as questionable against Patriots.
NE - WR Phillip Dorsett II (Head) and RB Damien Harris (Hamstring) are both listed as questionable against Cowboys.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Cowboys vs. Patriots
Two of the stalwarts in the NFC collide in this blockbuster Sunday Night Football showdown; arguably, one of the most intriguing matchups of the 2019 NFL season with the pair in the running for the No.1 seed in the playoffs. Indeed, it's a big deal and the reason why it was rescheduled to feature in this primetime slot.
As it is, the Niners have homefield advantage and enter this game as the nominal field goal faves. However, early money appears to be leaning towards the Packers ever so slightly.
The 8-2 SU Packers come into week 12 following a bye week. They'll be well rested and raring to go at Levi's Stadium. On the road, the Packers are 3-1 SU with their only blemish a surprising loss to the Los Angeles Chargers a few weeks back.
The Niners bounced back with a win over the Arizona Cardinals last week, beating Kyler Murray and company 36-26 to improve to a 9-1 SU record. However, taking the shine off of the Niners somewhat is the growing injury list on the offensive side of the ball. George Kittle is a day-to-day decision and Emanuel Sanders is still not 100%.
To be fair, both sides have a legitimate stake in the win making a bet either way a reasonable one. The Packers to keep it close or go for the upset wouldn't surprise anybody, Similarly, the Niners underscoring their homefield advantage with a hard fought win over the Niners would be par for the course. They've been putting paid on their critics from game-to-game and finding ways to win even when the chips are down.
GB - LB Ty Summers (Concussion) and CB Tremon Smith (Concussion) are both listed as questionable against 49ers.
SF - TE George Kittle (Knee) is listed as day-to-day; DL Dee Ford (Hamstring), WR Deebo Samuel (Shoulder) and CB K'Waun Williams (Stinger) are listed as questionable against Packers.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Packers vs. 49ers
How can the Ravens be favored by a field goal or less in this matchup? Haven't the oddsmakers been watching what the Baltimore is doing to opponents. Last week, they practically rendered Deshaun Watson and the Texans a non-factor in a most lopsided outcome. Indeed, in the last few games, Lamar Jackson has done enough to earn a little bit of a respite in the fourth quarter. A chance to put his feet up while the backup gets a few twirls up and down the field.
Jared Goff and the Rams, by contrast, have looked anything but like the Super Bowl runners-up. They've enjoyed a mixed season and have struggled against some of the better teams. In Sunday Night Football, the Rams got back in the win column but how much stock can NFL bettors put in a win over the Bears? Let alone a narrow 17-7 win that saw the Rams pull ahead late in the game with a brief inspired series from Jared Goff.
The Ravens are 4-1 SU on the road and 3-2 ATS with a 19.4 winning margin on average and a +16.7 differential versus the spread. The Rams are 2-2 ATS at home with no winning margin edge and a -4.8 differential versus the spread. The last time the Rams faced a legitimate contender at home they were blown away 20-7 by the Niners.
LAR - WR Robert Woods (Personal) is questionable against Ravens.
MORE: Follow the latest betting trends for Ravens vs. Rams