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NFL Week 4: Why the Titans are a good bet against the Falcons
Yahoo! is partnering with The Action Network during the football season to bring you expert sports betting information and analysis. Analysis provided by John Ewing.
Nothing went right for the Titans last week against the Jaguars, obviously, and now Tennessee heads to Atlanta in Week 4. After the poor offensive performance, oddsmakers opened the Titans as 4.5-point underdogs at PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Bettors are not interested in backing a team that can't score. More than 60 percent of spread tickets are on the Falcons.
It is easy to understand a gambler's hesitation to play Tennessee, but it is important to not overreact to one game. Teams are rarely as good or bad as they looked the previous week.
Often teams that perform poorly one week will exceed expectations the next.
Since 2003, NFL teams that struggled to score in their previous game (fewer than 10 points) have gone 409-368-17 (52.6%) against the spread (ATS) in their next game, per Bet Labs.
While you wouldn't want to blindly bet every team in this situation, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $1,969 simply buying low on teams after scoring fewer than 10 points.
Oddsmakers know recency bias will affect the judgement of casual bettors. What the public last saw impacts how they wager the following week. As such, bookmakers will inflate the lines against teams that had a poor offensive game.
Contrarian gamblers have profited by going against the grain and betting low-scoring teams. This strategy is even more effective if there are 70 percent or more bets on the other side.
Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 10 points and are getting 30 percent or less of the spread tickets have gone 148-94-4 (61.2%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,530 following this system.
Sharp bettors have already taken Tennessee plus the points. The Titans have moved from +4.5 to +4 despite heavy betting on the Falcons. When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of professional money.
Betting percentages change throughout the week, which can cause games to move in and out of this system, so be sure to save this Pro System and get real-time updates as matches occur.
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