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Sanders Odds-On Favorite to Win Democratic Presidential Nomination

6th February, 07:53

Yes! The world's leading "bookies" believe Senator Bernie Sanders is the hands-down favorite to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

Anyone familiar with Presidential Approval polling knows that the "industry standard" is RealClearPolitics. This is because long ago that website had the clever idea of averaging the most widely read polls into one "RCP Average". This turned out to make sense to a lot of people because highly respected polls can differ significantly, despite their claimed "polling error margin". For example, the most recent Gallup Poll has Trump with a 49% approval rating (a scary thought in itself...) but the Reuters/Ipso Poll has hin at just 42%, well out of "+ or - 3% or 4%" generally allowed for. So, RCP averages the polling data for 13 of the most watched polls to come up with their "RCP Average".

But to my surprise, my gaze wandered down their "RCP Presidential Approval Rating" page (which turns out to be much bigger than it first appears) to discover other riches. After scrolling past the RCP graphs, I noticed a box with polling averages for the National Democratic Presidential Nomination... and then New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, California and then... "Betting Odds".

What???

Yes, there in the last box on the lower right was a link to "Betting Odds- Democratic Presidential Nomination", with the "RCP Average" right at the top, as usual.

And guess what? According to the world's leading odds makers, Senator Bernie Sanders is the favorite to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination, beating his closest rival, Joe Biden, 41.3% to 22.7%, i.e by a whopping 18.6% margin! This is despite the fact that RealClearPolitics currently has Joe Biden Beating Sanders in their National Democratic Presidential Poll Average 27.0% to 21.8%.

And the "RCP Betting Odds" averages those "odds", which are apparently made by the pros in the business: the top six odds makers in the industry:

32red: "a British online casino company licensed in Gibraltar. Users of the website are able to play over 500 casino games including blackjack and roulette, along with sports betting and poker."

Spreadex: "a British-based company that offers financial spread betting, sports spread betting, and sports fixed-odds betting."

Smarkets: "allows you to back and lay with the best betting odds and lowest commission on all major sports and politics." [From their website]

Betvictor: "is an independent bookmaker. Having initially specialized in online sports betting, the company now incorporates online casino. The company was originally set up and named after its former chairman, Victor Chandler, before a rebrand to BetVictor."

Betfair: "an online gambling company which operates the world's largest online betting exchange. It also offers a Sportsbook, online casino, online poker and online bingo. The company's headquarters are located in Hammersmith in West London, United Kingdom and Clonskeagh, Dublin."

BetOnline: "a privately held online gambling company offering sports betting, casino games, and wagering on horse racing."

Sanders' odds actually would be considerably higher if not for the last outfit, BetOnline. This is because they have Sanders' odds to win at only about 5%, while all of the other odds-makers have him winning by about 20% or more.

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