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Steelers vs. Seahawks Predictions: Betting Preview, Odds, and Picks
15th September, 13:47It was a brutal Sunday night for the Steelers, their fans, and anyone who grabbed them (myself included) to cover at PA online sportsbooks last week at New England. Yeah, it was the Patriots, but three points? That's it? Let's take a look to see if a rebound is in store with our Steelers-Seahawks predictions.
Pittsburgh managed to convert on only 3 of 12 third down opportunities and was limited to 32 yards on the ground, while Tom Brady methodically diced up the Steelers' defense en route to 341 passing yards and three touchdowns.
As ugly as things were for the Steelers in Week 1, there is some good news. Namely, they don't have to play the Patriots this week, a team that is now 8-3 against Mike Tomlin's Steelers. So there's that.
In all seriousness, Pittsburgh figures to be much better this season than their uninspiring Week 1 effort would indicate, but they will need to get things straightened out at Heinz Field this afternoon against Russell Wilson and a Seattle squad that once again figures to be in the thick of the NFC playoff picture.
Can Pittsburgh avoid an 0-2 start to the season? Let's get into it.
There were some pretty strong sign-up bonuses, promotions, and odds boosts out there in Week 1, but don't worry if you missed out because many of the same deals are available once again this week, and they aren't exclusive to just those betting in PA.
If you're over in the Garden State, make sure you stop by and check out our NJ online sports betting page for all of the best Week 2 deals. Here are some of the top ones out there:
It will be Kenny Albert and Ronde Barber on the call as Lindsay Czarniak checks in with sideline reports.
Here are the current Steelers-Seahawks betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 8 a.m. Sunday morning:
There are several different ways to evaluate the betting market, but we like to take a look at how some of the popular projection models stack up with legal sportsbook odds in case there's such a disparity between the two that value becomes obvious. With that being said, let's take a look at how FiveThirtyEight's ELO point spread projection matches up with the legal sportsbook odds.
Hint: there is.
FiveThirtyEight has the Steelers favored by 2.5 points and with a 58% win probability. With the Steelers currently installed between a 3.5 to 4-point favorite at most sportsbooks, there is anywhere from 1 to 1.5 points of value on a Seattle spread bet by this measure.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of FanDuel's Steelers -200 moneyline odds is 66.7%. In relation to the ELO projection of 58%, the Steelers are wildly juiced up on the moneyline.
As for the Seahawks, the implied probability of their +172 moneyline odds at FanDuel is 36.8%, which means by ELO's measure, there is some betting value on the Seahawks moneyline.
While Week 1 was a total dud from the Steelers, the Seahawks had to squeak by the Bengals in a 21-20 nail-biter despite entering the game as a near double digit favorite. Russell Wilson completed 14 of 20 pass attempts for 195 yards and two touchdowns in a stellar, but not spectacular, performance.
Despite getting the win, the Seahawks were outgained 429-233 in total yardage and held the football for just over 24 minutes against the Bengals. If they want to run their record to 2-0 this afternoon, they're going to need to do a lot better than that.
While Seattle still possesses a formidable front seven that can limit the run and get after the quarterback (Seattle tallied five sacks last weekend), it's clear there are some issues on the back end of the defense. Quarterback Andy Dalton completed nearly 70% of his passes for 418 yards and two touchdowns-a stat line that seemed unthinkable at CenturyLink Field not so long ago.
Anyway, it wasn't until Wilson found wide receiver Tyler Lockett early in the fourth quarter that Seahawks fans could begin to exhale:
And even then, they had to strap in and watch their defense try to hold down a one possession lead.
As for this week, the Seahawks defense will face an even stiffer test when they have to travel across the country to deal with what many still expect to an explosive Steelers offense, one that should be fired up to move on from a miserable opening-week performance at New England.
Ben Roethlisberger managed to complete only 27 of 47 pass attempts for 276 yards (5.9 yards per attempt) and failed to throw a touchdown. Pittsburgh struggled with New England's man-to-man concepts, and while I'm sure that Seahawks defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. noticed that, he doesn't have quite the same personnel to pull off a similar game plan.
Still, this game will ultimately be decided by the Steelers' ability to pressure Wilson. The highly-regarded pass rush was virtually non-existent a week ago, and they'll need to do a better job up front and take advantage of a shaky Seattle offensive line that allowed four sacks in Week 1.
Here are the betting splits of all reporting legal sportsbooks as of 8:30 a.m. Sunday morning:
Bob: The Steelers are coming off a brutal loss in which they were completely embarrassed, while the Seahawks have to come east off a win for an early start. Pittsburgh's recent success as a home favorite off a loss combined with the struggles of west coast squads hitting the road for early games against teams off a loss is a dangerous mix.
Ultimately, I like this setup, I think the Steelers are the better team and that this game sets up for a Pittsburgh win and cover. The sharp money thinks so, too, as this spread has pushed up to -4 at many sportsbooks this morning.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Seahawks 17
Kyle: The Seahawks' secondary is not what it once was. Ben Roethlisberger's home-road splits are better at home (much of it with Antonio Brown). I love a situation in which Russell Wilson has to play catchup and just chucks the ball all-day. It's the recipe for a high-scoring affair. I don't love the spread in this one and the Steelers' moneyline play is a bad value. But I'll pensively take the Steelers to cover and more confidently take the over.