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USC Trojans and Oregon Ducks college basketball odds, picks and best bets - WSTale.com
23rd January, 23:47The USC Trojans (15-3) visits Pac-12 rival Oregon Ducks (15-4) at the Matthew Knight Arena for a 11:00 p.m. ET tip off. We analyze the USC-Oregon odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.
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Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Ducks 66, Trojans 62
The Trojans can continue their recent success against Oregon but actually wagering on that outcome is a different story. Sure, USC has won four of the last five games against the Ducks, including a 66-49 victory last season, but Oregon has won eight of its last nine games against the Trojans in Eugene, Oregon. Since 2014, the Ducks have the best win/loss record (82-8) as home favorites against Pac-12 competition with a 15.5 average margin of victory. Also, USC has just a 4-18 record against ranked opponents from the Pac-12, with a -11.5 average margin of victory, since 2014.
PASS on the moneyline because of the Ducks' poor line value and the unlikelihood of a Trojans upset.
Trends point to betting TROJANS +9.5 (-115). First, the Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Second, USC are 4-1 ATS in away games against above .500 teams. Third, USC is 4-1 ATS in road games and 9-5 ATS in night games. Finally, look for the Trojans to utilize a huge mismatch between the front courts. USC has two double-digit scoring bigs in its front court - Onyeka Okongwu and Nick Rakocevic - against a Ducks front court that doesn't feature a double-digit scorer, nor a player that gets more rebounds per game than either of the Trojans mentioned.
Since we're on the Trojans +9.5 and the Trojans have an Over/Under record of 6-12, let's bet UNDER 139.5 (-104) because it correlates with our ATS handicap. It serves the Trojans well to play to their advantage, which is through their bigs, and slow the game down. Plus since 2014, Oregon has a 41-49 Over/Under record as a home favorite and a 45-66-1 Over/Under record in conference games.
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